Analysts give gloomy forecasts about what the end of the Russian special operation in Ukraine will look like.
The UN is already reporting that humanity is “one misunderstanding, one miscalculation” away from “nuclear annihilation.” The American magazine “National Interest” is of the same opinion.
In early August, American journalists published an article titled “Nuclear Risks: Russia’s War in Ukraine Could End in Disaster.” According to experts, the probability of the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine “may be small”, but “today it is not equal to zero”.
Vladimir Putin is known to have sent a warning to the West that any attack on Moscow would lead to consequences “unprecedented in its history”. A few days later, Russia put its strategic nuclear forces on alert.
According to the National Interest, skeptics believe that nuclear weapons will not be used in Ukraine as long as the US and NATO “avoid the red lines” drawn by Russia.
These include direct attacks on Russian forces and the deployment of NATO forces in Ukraine. This leads to the US repeatedly rejecting Kyiv’s proposal to create a no-fly zone over Ukraine – and this will lead to an armed conflict with the Russian military.
But experts are sure that the situation can worsen even without violating Moscow’s “red lines” – if they get close enough, from Putin’s point of view.
If the Kremlin gets the feeling that the political regime of Russia is threatened, the physical security of the state is violated, then it will increase the readiness of the nuclear arsenal. First of all, artillery shells or aerial bombs will be delivered to the front line.
“Operationally, this means that lower-level commanders will be able to use nuclear weapons independently … This delegation will create two risks that are still largely ignored in the debate about the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine,” the analysts wrote.
First, nuclear weapons can be accidentally used due to mishandling. If a weapon accidentally explodes in Ukraine, it will most likely not be recognized as accidental, there will be a retaliatory strike.
Second, commanders may decide to use such weapons without the permission of the political leadership to prevent defeat in their sector.
If the US learns about the strengthening of Russian nuclear potential, it will consider the situation in Ukraine to be approaching the nuclear brink. It is possible that the Pentagon would order a pre-emptive nuclear strike by any means necessary. Among them are intercontinental ballistic missiles.
As previously written, according to the experts of the research center RAND Corporation, Russia can openly attack NATO countries, and all this will lead to a nuclear conflict between the states.
